From : Sebastian-A Molineus <smolineus@worldbank.org>
To : Natela Turnava <nturnava@moesd.gov.ge>; etikaradze@moh.gov.ge; i.matchavariani@mof.ge; Irakli Karseladze <irakli.karseladze@georoad.ge>; koba.gvenetadze@nbg.gov.ge
Subject : RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis
Cc : Ekaterine Mikabadze <emikabadze@moesd.gov.ge>; inadareishvili@moesd.gov.ge; tgabunia@moh.gov.ge; n.gagua@mof.ge; Evgenij Najdov <enajdov@worldbank.org>; Ahmet Levent Yener <alyener@worldbank.org>; Abdulaziz Faghi <afaghi@worldbank.org>; Thea Gigiberia <tgigiberia@ifc.org>; Salome Bakradze <S.Bakradze@mof.ge>; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; s.bakradze@mof.ge; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; Maia Duishvili <mduishvili@worldbank.org>
Received On : 23.02.2021 18:44
Attachments :

Dear colleagues –

 

in addition to the COVID-19 health and vaccine related data I send to you each week, I will start to share an additional economic update with you, focusing on macro-financial data across the Europe and Central Asia region. Copying Koba and Irakli in for info. as well.   As always, the WBG team stands ready to answer any questions you may have. 

 

Kind regards

Sebastian

 

Long-term bond yields have increased further in selected advanced and regional economies this week

 

Most commodity prices continued to rise this week - but gold is losing value

Other highlights from this week’s high-frequency charts (attached)

·        FX: Turkey’s lira continued to be the most appreciating regional currency this week, but currencies of Russia, Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan also appreciated. Polish, Hungarian and Croatian currencies on the other hand all depreciated markedly this week.

·        Sovereign risk: While risk levels are not spiking, they continue to rise in Ukraine and Armenia.

·        Equity: Emerging Europe equities continue to recover for the rout in late January and gained 2 percent this week. This trend is common with most emerging regions, although Latin American equities remain depressed.

·        Inflation: In Romania, inflation picked up to 3 percent in January, but declined in N. Macedonia and Albania.

·        Real activity: December data confirmed retail sales growth in Romania and Turkey remained positive over 2020.

·        Exports: Poland posted positive export growth over 2020 with a strong recovery late in the year.

·        Tourism: Data to December show tourism arrivals slumping, with N. Macedonia the least-worst affected at the end of the year.

·        Credit markets: Credit growth came down in January slightly in Turkey and Poland – two of the countries where it has been most elevated.

·        Fiscal: December data for Albania shows the 12-month deficit growing there, to close to 8 percent of lagged GDP.

·        No updates on interest rates this week..

Country-specific updates

Armenia

  • Number of testing intensified, also due to re-launching of flights to Russia and mandatory testing before traveling. A specialized commission approved the application of Sputnik-V, AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines against coronavirus in Armenia. There are some concerns if Armenia can meet the technical (thermal) requirements for the Pfizer vaccine, but the MoHealth suggested that this would be resolved.   
  • The Tax Authorities reported that the sales turnover in the first half of February was up 12 % yoy, mostly related to higher trade and services.
  • Political uncertainty, which escalated following the ceasefire with Azerbaijan, continues; despite growing consensus about early elections earlier, over the last week MPs from the ruling party have suggested possible reversal. This lowers the chances or early elections in the first half of 2021.
  • After stabilizing in the previous week, the dram weakened slightly over the last week, while reserves data do not point to CBA intervention.
  • Tracked flights and mobility in Yerevan continues to recover gradually.

 

Belarus

  • Satio CIvitta, a private market research company, has published research showing that Belarus has likely significantly under-reported mortality and number of infections from COVID. The study points to an abnormal increase in mortality in the second quarter of 2020, by 18.5%, which, according to published information, is not associated with COVID‑19. According to Satio survey data, by November 2020, some 11% of the Belarusian population had been diagnosed as COVID‑19 positive (between 584,000 and 704,000 cases). Taking into account those who believe they had been infected but were never diagnosed, the total count could be as high as 2.5 million.  Per official statistics, Belarus has indicated 270,000 confirmed infections and some 1900 deaths (as of Feb 18, 2021).

Croatia

  • Croatia will relax measures starting February 15: All hospitality services can now provide drinks and food to go; Gyms and fitness centers can operate following strict epidemiological measures; Children’s playrooms and workshops can operate and be organized adhering to measures; Casinos, slot machine clubs and betting shops can operate until 10:00 pm without serving food or drinks

Georgia

  • Political uncertainty, brewing since the opposition failed to recognize the results of the October parliamentary elections, took a twist over the last week with the unexpected decision of the PM to resign citing disagreements within the party on the stance towards opposition officials facing criminal charges for inciting violence during protests in 2019. A new PM candidate has already been proposed; however, it is unclear what the impact will be over ongoing activities, including COVID management and immunization.
  • Georgia signed an agreement with COVAX to purchase 1.4m COVID-19 vaccines for 700K individuals (20% of population). Under Phase 1, Georgia will receive 30K of the Pfizer vaccine by end-February and between 200-300K doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine in February and March. Under Phase 2 (April to June), the authorities are discussing obtaining an additional 300-500K doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
  • Georgia will purchase additional 2m doses to reach the target of 60% of the population through negotiations with EU countries and vaccine manufacturers.
  • Six eastern partnership countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine will benefit from a new, €40m, programme launched by the EU in partnership with WHO, that aims to ensure local readiness and preparedness for a safe and effective vaccination;
  • The number of beneficiaries of subsistence allowance increased by 100K in 2020 to reach 532K in January 2021.
  • In-classroom education resumed nationwide as of February 15.
  • Restaurants and cafes are also allowed to provide their services in open areas. 
  • Nighttime curfew remains in place as we as restrictions on intercity transport and on weekend operations of public transport, open markets and food facilities (except delivery service);
  • Fitch confirmed Georgia’s at ‘BB’ / negative outlook rating. Strengths include ‘strong structural indicators, such as governance and business environment’, relative to 'BB' category peers. The negative outlook ‘reflects the significant ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic;
  • The Constitutional Court of Georgia upheld  the ruling on Feb 10 allowing executive authorities to maintain COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions and the legal procedures, thus approving rule by government decree.

 

Kazakhstan 

  • From Feb.15, the authorities have gradually resumed air flights to several countries, including Russia, Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine.

 

North Macedonia

  • North Macedonia adopted a 5th package of support measures amounting to 1.4% of GDP, partly already allocated in the 2021 budget. Included in the package:
  • financial support of salaries for employees for February and March 2021 in amount of 14,500 to 21,776 denars per employee or 31.2 million euros in total with a coverage of about 60,000 workers per month. Eligible are companies that had a decline in revenues in the last three months, compared to comparable month a year ago.
  • loans with 0% interest for companies in the fields of tourism, crafts, catering, transport, industry for organizing events, private health institutions and the like, through Development Bank of North Macedonia in amount of 10 million euros. Depending on the total increase in revenues and the increased profit, the companies can convert 30% to 50% of the loan into a grant.
  • postponing the payment of personal income tax until June 30, 2021 in amount of 250,000 euros for self-employed citizens who according to the Law on Personal Income Tax were exempted from paying advance payments until March 31, 2021
  • support for some sectors (transport, hotel, entertainment, tobacco, grape processing)
  • increase the Credit guarantee scheme by 5 million euros, distributed through the Development Bank of Northern Macedonia. The state is expected to be the guarantor of loans that companies will take from commercial banks in the amount of about 30m euros
  • grace period for payment of the obligations for the users of the loans from the credit line "COVID 2" with the Development Bank until the end of 2021.
  • establishing a Fund for cheap credit products for export companies in the amount of 10 million denars, which will be established through the Development Bank of North Macedonia
  • abolishing customs rates for 102 raw materials used by  export-oriented companies by the end of 2021 (fiscal impact: 10 million euros)
  • comply with the rules and customs treatment of products and services on the market in Northern Macedonia with the single market of the European Union and the markets of the member countries of the World Trade Organization. The estimated fiscal implications are around 10 million euros.
  • financial support for MSMEs through co-financed assistance for technological development for accelerated economic growth in the covid period - through the Fund for Innovation and Technological Development in the amount of 6 million euros.
  • financial support for Roma entrepreneurs by creating a "Matching Fund for Entrepreneurship for Roma”, mostly for MSMEs (2 million Euro)

 

Romania

  • The Romanian economy contracted by 3.9 percent in 2020 on the back of better than expected fourth-quarter performance at -1.5 percent yoy. This reflects in part a broader continuation of employment and production in the second wave of the pandemic in Q4 2020 compared to the first wave.

 

Russia

  • Russia has extended a ban on flights to and from the United Kingdom until the end of March 16 due to the UK coronavirus variant. The flight ban has been in place since December 22, 2020.
  • Starting February 15, Russia resumed flights with Azerbaijan and Armenia.
  • The government has formed a new package of additional business support measures. The package includes: (i) resumption of lending at a zero rate for the payment of salaries; (i) cancellation of tax and insurance premiums arrears to enterprises from the least recovered industries from the list of affected by the pandemic in March and the first quarter of 2020; (iii) subsidies for loans (additional reduction by 2–3 pp) to SMEs subject to an increase in staff by 10 percent by December 2021 relative to the beginning of the year; (iv) softening of the transition from special to a general tax regime; (v) fixing the cadastral value of offices, retail facilities, public catering and consumer services at the level of 2020 - for calculating property taxes for both individuals and legal entities. The budget expenditures for such a package is estimated to amount to about 150-200 billion rubles (US$ billion 2 – 2.7). By March 1, The Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Tax Service, together with the Central Bank and the SME Corporation, must work out the order and calculate the required amount of expenses

 

Turkey

  • The President announced that relaxation of COVID-19 related restrictions will begin in March, and the normalization process will be province-specific, depending on a four-tier risk assessment in each province.
  • Universities are planned to reopen in March.
  • Short-term wage allowance, Turkey’s employee wage support scheme, has been extended until the end of March, with the authorities stating that this will be the final extension.
  • More than 5 million people have now been vaccinated, with second-round vaccinations now underway.

 

Ukraine

  • The Government has extended quarantine in Ukraine until April 30, 2021 and established a "yellow" level of epidemic danger throughout Ukraine from February 24. In total, there are four levels of epidemic danger and indicators for determining them. Separately, the IMF has ended Ukraines SBA review with no agreement on disbursement. Ukraine had been expecting to receive US$2.2bn this year spread across three equal tranches this year. IMF concerns focused on strengthening governance of the central bank, improvements to the legislative and regulatory framework for bank supervision and resolution, policies to reduce the medium-term fiscal deficit, legislation restoring and strengthening the anti-corruption framework and the judiciary, as well as on energy policy.

 

 

 

Thank you and kind regards,

Sebastian

 

 

Sebastian Molineus
Regional Director for the South Caucasus
Europe and Central Asia
T  +995 (32) 291 6238
M +995 (577) 78 7821
M +1 (202) 492-3914
E  smolineus@worldbank.org
W www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca

 @smolineus

www.linkedin.com/in/molineus/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Sebastian-A Molineus
Sent: Monday, February 8, 2021 10:37 PM
To: Maya Tskitishvili ; nturnava@moesd.gov.ge; etikaradze@moh.gov.ge; 'i.matchavariani@mof.ge' ; ggakharia@gov.ge
Cc: Ekaterine Mikabadze ; inadareishvili@moesd.gov.ge; tgabunia@moh.gov.ge; 'n.gagua@mof.ge' ; Evgenij Najdov ; Ahmet Levent Yener ; Abdulaziz Faghi ; Thea Gigiberia ; Salome Bakradze ; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; s.bakradze@mof.ge; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; Maia Duishvili
Subject: RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis

 

Dear all -

 

In follow-up to Friday’s meeting and as discussed, please find attached a status update of COVID-19 Vaccines within the WHO EUL/PQ evaluation process for info. 

 

 

Thank you and kind regards,

Sebastian

 

 

Sebastian Molineus
Regional Director for the South Caucasus
Europe and Central Asia
T  +995 (32) 291 6238
M +995 (577) 78 7821
M +1 (202) 492-3914
E  smolineus@worldbank.org
W www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca

 @smolineus

www.linkedin.com/in/molineus/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Sebastian-A Molineus
Sent: Sunday, February 7, 2021 7:27 PM
To: Maya Tskitishvili <m.tskitishvili@mrdi.gov.ge>; nturnava@moesd.gov.ge; etikaradze@moh.gov.ge; 'i.matchavariani@mof.ge' <i.matchavariani@mof.ge>
Cc: Ekaterine Mikabadze <emikabadze@moesd.gov.ge>; inadareishvili@moesd.gov.ge; tgabunia@moh.gov.ge; 'n.gagua@mof.ge' <n.gagua@mof.ge>; Evgenij Najdov <enajdov@worldbank.org>; Ahmet Levent Yener <alyener@worldbank.org>; Abdulaziz Faghi <afaghi@worldbank.org>; Thea Gigiberia <tgigiberia@ifc.org>; Salome Bakradze <S.Bakradze@mof.ge>; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; s.bakradze@mof.ge; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; Maia Duishvili <mduishvili@worldbank.org>
Subject: RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis

 

Dear colleagues – please find attached and below our weekly COVID-19 monitoring presentation and weekly update (sorry for distributing slightly late). 

Best, Sebastian

 

 

2021

Feb 3

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Update

 

Summary – Key Development
 

  • Global Numbers as of February 3, 2021 (1 am ET):

 

  • The US detected its first case of B.1.351 or South African variant in South Carolina. Case detected in Baltimore as well.
  • The pace of the Covid pandemic has slowed in every region of the world for the third week in a row, with a 13% decline as compared to the previous week.
  • Saturday 30 January 2021 marked one year since WHO declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
  • A single dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine provides sustained protection against Covid-19 for at least three months and reduced transmission of the disease by 67%.
  • Sputnik V vaccine results from 20,000 trial participants suggest an efficacy of 91.6% against COVID-19.
  • EU Commission gives final approval to AstraZeneca vaccine.
  • Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine demonstrated 66% efficacy in preventing moderate-to-severe COVID-19 disease across several Phase 3 trial locations: the US (72%), Latin America (66%), and South Africa (57%). The vaccine demonstrated 85% efficacy in terms of preventing severe disease.
  • Novavax COVID-19 vaccine 89% effective in UK trial.
  • S. Korea's Seegene develops first COVID-19 test kit that can detect multiple variants.

 

 

Number of weekly confirmed cases reported

IBRD:  1,413,616

IDA-eligible: 84,549

Number of weekly confirmed deaths reported

IBRD:  41,444

IDA-eligible:  1,866

Total number of confirmed cases

IBRD:  48,828,215

IDA-eligible:  3,082,704

Total number of confirmed deaths

IBRD:  1,164,531

IDA-eligible: 56,137

  

   

39.2% of all new weekly COVID-19 cases (Jan 25-Feb 1) are reported in IBRD countries, 2.3% in IDA-eligible countries and 58.4% in high-income countries. Likewise, 44.7% of all COVID-19 deaths since last week are reported in IBRD countries, 2.0% in IDA-eligible countries and 53.3% in high-income countries.

 

Of the total COVID-19 cases: 47.7% were reported in IBRD countries, 3.0% were reported in IDA-eligible countries, and 49.3% in High-income countries.

 

Regional Numbers – Per Capita

Source: The case and death data is collected from WHO situation reports and population data is from World Development Indicators (World Banka Data). Only IDA and IBRD countries included. Countries that are not reporting data are not included. (As of February 1, 2021).

 

Epidemiology Update – New SARS-CoV-2 variants

  • VOC 202012/01 or B.1.1.7 (UK variant) detected in ten additional countries. As of 2 February, a total of 80 countries have reported either imported cases or community transmission of this variant.
  • Vietnam confirms latest virus outbreak is more contagious B.1.1.7 variant.

 

 

 

  • Variant P.1 or B.1.1.28 (Brazil variant) reported in two additional countries. To date, this variant is reported in ten countries worldwide.
  • A study published in The Lancet analyzed the increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Manaus, Brazil, a region that had previously shown high levels of seroprevalence among its community members. Despite the high seroprevalence, Manaus exhibited a large surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in January 2021. The researchers present 4 possible explanations for the surprising surge in cases: (1) prior overestimation of seroprevalence; (2) waning of immunity; (3) new variant, including the P.1 variant, less susceptible to antibodies from prior infections;(4) much higher transmissibility, allowing for community transmission even in areas with high existing seroprevalence.
  • Scientific American guide to the most-concerning mutations seen in five SARS-CoV-2 variants first identified in Spain, the UK, and South Africa, as well as two in Brazil.

 

Other Headlines

 

UPDATE ON KEY TOOLS

 

Vaccine Development and WHO approval

·        A single dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine provides sustained protection against Covid-19 for at least three months and reduced transmission of the disease by 67%.

·        Sputnik V vaccine results from 20,000 trial participants published in The Lancet, suggesting an efficacy of 91.6% against COVID-19. There was good efficacy in older adults, who are at highest risk for death, but little diversity, since most participants were white males.

·        EU Commission gives final approval to AstraZeneca vaccine.

·        Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine demonstrated 66% efficacy in preventing moderate-to-severe COVID-19 disease across several Phase 3 trial locations: the US (72%), Latin America (66%), and South Africa (57%). The lower efficacy in Latin America and South Africa prompted concern about the vaccine’s protection against emerging variants, including B.1.351 which is circulating widely in South Africa. Nearly all trial included cases of COVID-19 (95%) [in South Africa] were due to infection with the B.1.351 lineage. The vaccine demonstrated 85% efficacy in terms of preventing severe disease across all locations, regardless of the variant.

·        Novavax says COVID-19 vaccine 89% effective in UK trial but only less effective against the South African variant.

·        The WHO updated its guidance on the Moderna SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to include pregnant women.

How do vaccine front-runners compare?

 

(Updated as of February 1, 2021; source: New York Times, Reuters, Bloomberg)

 

Vaccine  Access, Delivery, and Rollout

 

 

 

·        German authorities have blocked the use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine on people aged over 65, the Financial Times has reported.

·        WHO director-general says COVID-19 vaccine nationalism harmful for all.

Africa (AFE and AFW)

·        First vaccine doses arrive in hard-hit South Africa.

·        Tanzania has “no plans” to accept COVID-19 vaccines.

·        The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) announced a partnership between VillageReach, Swoop Aero, and the Ministry of Health—“Drones for Health”— to promote equitable access to healthcare for half a million people in remote communities of the Equateur province. In addition to standard medical supplies, the new program is expected to support SARS-CoV-2 vaccination efforts in the country. These drones will be used to deliver medicine and other supplies to 75 health facilities in the province.

·        The Africa CDC secured another 400 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, manufactured by India’s Serum Institute. This adds to the 270 million doses previously secured from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson (J&J).

Europe

·        France to offer vaccine for all French people by summer-end.

·        Hungary’s drug regulator granted emergency use approval to Chinese Sinopharm’s vaccine, in addition to Sputnik V ( last month) rather than waiting for the bloc’s European Medicines Agency (EMA) approval.

·        Both France and Germany have threatened legal action against AstraZeneca in the row over a shortage of coronavirus vaccine in the EU.

·        The EU’s medicines regulator has authorized AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine for use in adults throughout the bloc.

·        Armenia approves Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine.

East Asia and Pacific

·        Malaysia to receive first batch of Pfizer vaccines on Feb. 26.

·        China cracks fake COVID-19 vaccine ring, confiscates 3,000 doses.

Latin America and the Caribbean

·        Rio de Janeiro will be able to use hundreds of Sinovac vaccines the city initially feared spoiled after a power outage left them stored at an inappropriate temperature.

·        Peru regulators approve Pfizer vaccine against COVID-19.

·        Mexico nears approval of Russia vaccine.

·        Mexico to import AstraZeneca vaccine from India.

Middle-East and North Africa

·        The Palestinian Authority began vaccinating its health workers in the occupied West Bank against Covid-19 after receiving doses from Israel.

South Asia Region

·         Pakistan military airlifts first COVID-19 vaccine consignment from China.

·        Sputnik V Covid vaccine production starts in India.

·        Bangladesh starts COVID vaccination drive from February 7th but misinformation may lead to vaccine skepticism.

 

Treatment

·        The evolving clinical treatment standards for COVID-19 patients are driving a shortage of oxygen, in the US and countries around the world. The use of high-flow oxygen, as opposed to mechanical ventilation, is placing strain on oxygen production and use capacity, which has resulted in efforts to mitigate the increase in use and identify solutions to bolster capacity.

·        Monoclonal bodies ineffective against new COVID-19 variants.

 

Diagnostics

·        S. Korea's Seegene develops first COVID-19 test kit that can detect multiple variants.

 

 

 

Thank you and kind regards,

Sebastian

 

 

Sebastian Molineus
Regional Director for the South Caucasus
Europe and Central Asia
T  +995 (32) 291 6238
M +995 (577) 78 7821
M +1 (202) 492-3914
E  smolineus@worldbank.org
W www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca

 @smolineus

www.linkedin.com/in/molineus/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Sebastian-A Molineus
Sent: Thursday, January 28, 2021 9:00 AM
To: Maya Tskitishvili <m.tskitishvili@mrdi.gov.ge>; nturnava@moesd.gov.ge; etikaradze@moh.gov.ge; 'i.matchavariani@mof.ge' <i.matchavariani@mof.ge>
Cc: Ekaterine Mikabadze <emikabadze@moesd.gov.ge>; inadareishvili@moesd.gov.ge; tgabunia@moh.gov.ge; 'n.gagua@mof.ge' <n.gagua@mof.ge>; Evgenij Najdov <enajdov@worldbank.org>; Ahmet Levent Yener <alyener@worldbank.org>; Abdulaziz Faghi <afaghi@worldbank.org>; Thea Gigiberia <tgigiberia@ifc.org>; Salome Bakradze <S.Bakradze@mof.ge>; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; s.bakradze@mof.ge; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; Maia Duishvili <mduishvili@worldbank.org>
Subject: RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis

 

Dear colleagues –

 

Please find below and attached our WB weekly update on key COVID indicators across the Region and also globally, with a particular focus on vaccinations. Please also find attached the weekly ECA COVID-19 Monitoring presentation with key indicators across the region.

 

Best regards,

Sebastian

 

 

2021

Jan 26

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Update

 

Summary – Key Developments
 

  • Global Numbers as of January 26, 2021 (9 pm ET):

 

 

 

Number of weekly confirmed cases reported

IBRD:  2,437,588

IDA-eligible: 111,303

Number of weekly confirmed deaths reported

IBRD:  43,934

IDA-eligible:  2,349

Total number of confirmed cases

IBRD:  47,414,599

IDA-eligible:  2,998,155

Total number of confirmed deaths

IBRD:  1,123,087

IDA-eligible: 54,271

 

47.0% of all new weekly COVID-19 cases (Jan 18-25) are reported in IBRD countries, 2.1% in IDA-eligible countries and 50.8% in high-income countries. Likewise, 43.2% of all COVID-19 deaths since last week are reported in IBRD countries, 2.3% in IDA-eligible countries and 54.5% in high-income countries.

 

Of the total COVID-19 cases: 48.0% were reported in IBRD countries, 3.0% were reported in IDA-eligible countries, and 49.0% in High-income countries.

 

Epidemiology Update – New SARS-CoV-2 variants

 

 

HOW DO SARS-CoV-2 VARIANTS COMPARE?

 

 

UK (B.1.1.7)

South Africa

( B.1.351)

Brazil (P.1)

Alternate name

501.Y.V1

501Y.V2

501Y.V3

Mutations

17

21

17

Transmissibility

>40% increase

Suggested heightened transmissibility of >50%

Unknown

Virulence

/Severity

Increased virulence suggested

No evidence of increased virulence

Unknown

Vaccine efficacy

Initial data from Pfizer and Moderna suggests that vaccines are effective

In vitro studies suggest potential for immune escape

Reports for reinfection reported, remains unresolved

Source: New Scientist-  A guide to SARS-CoV-2 variants (Jan 25, 2021)

 

     Are vaccines effective against variants?

  • Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech both say their vaccines are effective against new variants of the coronavirus discovered in Britain and South Africa. Both are slightly less effective against the South Africa variant. Moderna said, although there was a six-fold reduction in vaccine’s neutralizing power to the South African vaccine in vitro, it is still protective. No data is available for Brazil variant.
  • Booster Shots – Both Pfizer and Moderna are developing a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 variants.
    • What to keep in mind with regards to booster shots? Booster shots will have cost implications for countries and could require further regulatory review process for a new booster or an additional booster dose.
  • Minnesota confirms US’s first COVID-19 case associated with Brazil P.1 variant.

 

Countries reporting Coronavirus variants

 

Map is for illustrative purposes only and is not an official map. As a result, the map may not represent boundaries and borders accurately. 

Source: https://cov-lineages.org/global_report.html

 

Other Headlines

  • Patients battle covid 'enemy' in Nigeria second wave.
  • Countries in Europe grappled with more fallout from their surges, including riots in Netherlands over COVID-19 measures; Germany, where a Berlin hospital is on lockdown following an B117 variant outbreak, and France, where officials are considering a third lockdown amid rising cases and hospitalizations. UK crosses 100,000 deaths.
  • Lebanon is facing a COVID-19 surge, with hospitals running out of room for more patients, Oxygen tanks, ventilators, and medical staff in extremely short supply.
  • Mexican President tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
  • COVID-19 lessons from Bolivia – In Bolivia, non-pharmaceutical interventions were combined with income supports targeted at workers at risk of impoverishment. Further, policy making at the subnational level was a crucial aspect of the response.
  • Nearly 8.8% of global working hours were lost in 2020  according to the International Labor Organization (ILO).
  • New Zealand’s first case of community transmission in 2 months in form of South Africa COVID-19 variant.
  • U.S. Tops 25 Million Confirmed Coronavirus Cases.
  • Health worker strikes in Africa - In Eswatini, health care workers announced a national strike on 18 January. Although nurses in Bungoma, Kenya suspended their strike on 21 January, nurses continue to strike in Kenya, which may effect the number of tests performed and overall health system delivery.

 

 

UPDATE ON KEY TOOLS

 

Vaccine Development and WHO approval

  • Status of COVID-19 Vaccines within WHO EUL/PQ evaluation process (20 January)
  • Merck discontinues development of COVID-19 Viral Vector Vaccine Candidates due to inferior immune responses.
  • Johnson & Johnson expected to share results from COVID-19 vaccine trial next week.
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) issued recommendations on Tuesday on the use of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine and WHO emergency use listing is now imminent.
  • WHO expected to review AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine on February 8.
  • Gamaleya begins testing a single-dose version called “Sputnik Light.”
  • In India, Bharat Biotech‘s inactivated vaccine Covaxin has been given emergency approval, while it’s still finishing up Phase III trials. The Phase I data is now published.

 

Vaccine  Access, Delivery, and Rollout

  • International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) – global economy could lose as much as $9.2 trillion if governments don't ensure that developing countries have access to COVID-19 vaccines.
  • Pfizer/BioNTech sign a 40 million supply deal with COVAX.
  • BioNTech to supply 50m specialty needles to countries struggling to extract a sixth dose from vials of its Covid-19 vaccine as Europe’s immunization drive is held back by a temporary supply shortfall.
  • AstraZeneca vaccine may be in shorter supply due to manufacturing problems. AstraZeneca to supply 31 million COVID-19 shots to EU in first quarter, a 60% cut.
  • The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its guidance regarding use of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved an updated label allowing a potential extra dose of the Pfizer and BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine to be extracted using low dead-volume syringes.

 

 



Map is for illustrative purposes only and is not an official map. As a result, the map may not represent boundaries and borders accurately.

 

Africa (AFE and AFW)

  • Zimbabwe launches wide vaccine effort and plans to buy sufficient coronavirus vaccines to inoculate about two-thirds of its population, amid a surge in infections and deaths.
  • Nigeria expects to get 1st COVID-19 vaccine in February.
  • Mali secures AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine for 4.2 million people, expected to start vaccination in April.
  • South Africa’s ambitious vaccine roll out plan.

 

Europe

  • Hungary has licensed Russia’s coronavirus vaccine, breaking ranks with other EU countries and ignoring calls to stick to a common European vaccine policy.
  • Turkey receives 6.5 million doses of China's Sinovac vaccine.
  • Denmark will include homeless people among those given priority for Covid-19 vaccines.

 

East Asia and Pacific

  • Australia grants provisional authorization for the use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.
  • Malaysia secures 18.4 million doses of Russian, Chinese COVID-19 vaccines.
  • Thailand to start its coronavirus inoculation programme next month by administering the AstraZeneca vaccine.

 

Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Mexico is very close to signing a contract for Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine and the first shipment of around 200,000 doses could arrive next week.
  • Ecuador has approved the use of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine.
  • Brazil approves use of CoronaVac doses partly manufactured locally.

 

Middle-East and North Africa

  • Bahrain approves Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID vaccine for emergency use.
  • Morocco received 2m doses of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine, as it prepares to become the first African state to roll out a mass immunization program this week. Morocco also approved emergency use authorization for China’s Sinopharm vaccine. First batch to arrive by Wednesday.
  • Iran approved Russian coronavirus vaccine Sputnik V.
  • Lessons from frontrunners - Israel and UAE are world front runners in vaccine roll out with 47 and 27 vaccines administered per 100 people respectively.  Preliminary analysis of 200,000 vaccinated 60+ citizens in Israel (where more than 75% of older people have gotten a COVID-19 shot) shows that they were 33% less likely to test positive 2 weeks after their first dose, compared to 200,000 unvaccinated people. Israel also reported a 60% drop in hospitalizations for people aged 60+ just 3 weeks after they got their first Pfizer COVID vaccine dose. Reductions in hospitalizations, then deaths, are believed to be the first signs the vaccines are working. On the other hand, despite a world-leading vaccine programme, the UAE is struggling to contain surging coronavirus infections, driven in part by reluctance to shut down its vital tourism sector. Israel is using Pfizer and Moderna. UAE is using Sinopharm and Pfizer, and as of this week, approved Sputnik V.  UAE’s experience warns against complacency in public health measures during roll out of vaccines.
  • What worked in Israel and why? Lessons from Israel’s vaccine roll out success highlight the importance of: (1) political stewardship; (2) outreach to minority groups; (3) dedicated vaccination sites; (4) high level of preparedness and community mobilization during crises; (5) linking prioritization for different groups to different delivery systems; (6) using traditional forms of interaction in addition to digital communication; (7) strong health workforce; and (8) system to monitor uptake and post-vaccine surveillance.

 

South Asia Region

  • Pfizer will pursue its request for India to approve its COVID-19 vaccine if the government commits to buying shots.
  • India will administer homegrown coronavirus vaccine ‘Covaxin’ in seven more states from Monday as it seeks to inoculate 30 million healthcare workers across the country.
  • Indian hesitancy sets back world’s biggest Covid vaccination drive. India’s Covid-19 vaccine drive has been hampered by turnout as low as 22% in some states, as fears over the safety of the vaccine and the spread of misinformation has fueled widespread hesitancy. Many doctors have expressed concern over the incomplete data underpinning India’s Bharat Biotech  Covaxin shot.
  • Taliban backs Afghan vaccine drive after COVAX pledges $112 million.
  • Pakistan is all set to approve the Russian Sputnik vaccine for emergency use.
  • Bangladesh receives first Covid vaccine consignment of 5 million doses from India. Bangladesh has so far purchased 30 million doses of Covishield vaccine from the Serum Institute of India. India and vaccine diplomacy.

 

Treatment

 

Mobility

  • United States extends travel bans on Brazil, South Africa, and much of Europe.
  • The UK will announce on Tuesday enforced quarantine for travelers arriving in the country from abroad. Germany is extending its national lockdown until 14 February.
  • Iceland to start issuing vaccine certificates.
  • Olympic Games will go ahead in July despite a state of emergency being declared in Tokyo because of increasing Covid-19 cases.

 

 

 

 

Thank you and kind regards,

Sebastian

 

 

Sebastian Molineus
Regional Director for the South Caucasus
Europe and Central Asia
T  +995 (32) 291 6238
M +995 (577) 78 7821
M +1 (202) 492-3914
E  smolineus@worldbank.org
W www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca

 @smolineus

www.linkedin.com/in/molineus/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Sebastian-A Molineus
Sent: Thursday, January 21, 2021 10:12 PM
To: Maya Tskitishvili <m.tskitishvili@mrdi.gov.ge>; nturnava@moesd.gov.ge; etikaradze@moh.gov.ge; 'i.matchavariani@mof.ge' <i.matchavariani@mof.ge>
Cc: Ekaterine Mikabadze <emikabadze@moesd.gov.ge>; inadareishvili@moesd.gov.ge; tgabunia@moh.gov.ge; 'n.gagua@mof.ge' <n.gagua@mof.ge>; Evgenij Najdov <enajdov@worldbank.org>; Ahmet Levent Yener <alyener@worldbank.org>; Abdulaziz Faghi <afaghi@worldbank.org>; Thea Gigiberia <tgigiberia@ifc.org>; Salome Bakradze <S.Bakradze@mof.ge>; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; s.bakradze@mof.ge; mghadua@moh.gov.ge; Maia Duishvili <mduishvili@worldbank.org>
Subject: RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis

 

Dear colleagues – below and attached our WB COVID-19 update with key indicators across the region and world. As always, we remain available to help, in particular with respect to the vaccination roll-out. 

Kind regards, Sebastian

 

2021

Jan 19

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Update

 

Summary – Key Developments
 

 

  • Of the 119 IDA/IBRD countries in which we are currently engaged, 85 countries have completed at least one round of vaccines readiness assessment (VIRAF/VIRAT update)
  • Several SARS-CoV-2 variants with evidence of increased transmissibility continue to raise alarms. Another Coronavirus Variant linked to cases in California.
  • Germany is the latest country to discover a new mutation of the coronavirus, with a new variant identified among a group of hospital patients.
  • Independent WHO panel’s interim report on COVID-19 pandemic response.
  • EpiVacCorona, Russia's second to be registered, reported to be "100% effective" in early-stage trials.
  • Human trials of a coronavirus vaccine combining Russia's Sputnik V shot with AstraZeneca shot expected to start in early February.
  • African Union secures 270 Million COVID-19 Vaccines – WHO not opposed to deals outside COVAX.
  • WHO says Africa to see 1st vaccine doses from COVAX in March.
  • Brazil clears emergency use of Sinovac, AstraZeneca vaccines, shots begin.
  • Ivermectin, an antiparasitic drug with antiviral properties, has shown promise during in vitro studies by inhibiting replication of SARS-CoV-2 in very small concentrations.

 

 

 

Epidemiology Update – New SARS-CoV-2 variants

 

  • Several SARS-CoV-2 variants with evidence of increased transmissibility continue to raise alarms as they are identified in more countries. The specific mutations in the recently identified variants of concern—including B.1.1.7 (UK variant), B.1.351 (South Africa variant), and P.1 (Brazil variant)—are being investigated for increased transmissibility and potentially immune escape.
  • Researchers from the US CDC COVID-19 Response Team projected that the B.1.1.7 variant would contribute to a rapid growth in cases in the US early in 2021. The B.1.1.7 has been identified in 122 cases in 20 US states, including California and Florida with at least 40 reported cases each.
  • A small study at the University of Texas Medical Division found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine would likely still be effective against a key mutation in the U.K. and South African variants.

 

Map is for illustrative purposes only and is not an official map. As a result, the map may not represent boundaries and borders accurately.

 

 

  • Another Coronavirus Variant linked to growing cases in in California. Health officials stress they haven’t determined whether the variant might be more contagious or resistant to vaccine.
  • Germany is the latest country to discover a new mutation of the coronavirus, with a new variant identified among a group of hospital patients.
  • Scientists have found new biological evidence that a South African Covid variant of binds more readily to human cells, making it more infectious. Germany extended lockdown to Feb. 14 on fears of COVID variants.
  • Japan has detected a variant of the new coronavirus first discovered in Britain in three people who had not travelled there.
  • Morocco’s health ministry confirmed its first imported case of the more contagious variant of coronavirus first discovered in the UK.
  • South Africa has delayed reopening its schools amid a rapid resurgence of Covid-19 driven by a more infectious variant of the virus. Previous infection with the coronavirus may offer less protection against the new variant, although scientists hope that vaccines will still work.
  • Kuwait registers first cases of new virus variant.

Other Headlines

  • “The world was not as prepared as it should have been, and it must do better,” concludes an independent WHO panel reviewing the pandemic response in an interim report.
  • Americas region experiencing sustained surge in COVID-19 cases with 2.5 million confirmed cases in the last week: PAHO.
  • Infectious diseases and livelihood crises lead the rankings of risks expected to pose a critical threat to the world in the next two years, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF).

UPDATE ON KEY TOOLS

 

Vaccine Development

  • A candidate COVID-19 vaccine known as EpiVacCorona, Russia's second to be registered, proved "100% effective" in early-stage trials, according to Russian consumer health watchdog Rospotrebnadzor.
  • Human trials of a coronavirus vaccine combining Russia's Sputnik V shot with that developed by Britain's AstraZeneca and Oxford University are expected to start in early February.

Vaccine Access and Delivery

 

  • The European Union wants to set up a mechanism that would allow the sharing of surplus vaccines with poorer neighboring states and Africa, the EU health chief said, in a move that may undercut a WHO-led global scheme.
  • Equity Issues: The world is on the verge of a “catastrophic moral failure” as wealthy countries hoard COVID-19 vaccines, WHO chief warned this weekend, lamenting that 39 million+ doses had been rolled out in 49 richer states—while one poor nation had just 25 doses.

Map is for illustrative purposes only and is not an official map. As a result, the map may not represent boundaries and borders accurately.

 

Map is for illustrative purposes only and is not an official map. As a result, the map may not represent boundaries and borders accurately.

 

Africa

  • Nigeria will seek to procure vaccines that are less dependent on cooling facilities, talks are in progress with Russia and India.
  • African Union secures 270 Million COVID-19 Vaccines – WHO Says Its Not Opposed To Deals Outside COVAX.
  • WHO says Africa to see 1st vaccine doses from COVAX in March.

 

Europe

  • The European Commission recommended at least 70% of the European Union’s adult population be vaccinated by this summer.
  • Britain would give COVID-19 shots to up to 2,000 people working in vaccine supply chains, after AstraZeneca requested protection for its workers.
  • Serbia becomes first European country to use Chinese COVID vaccine (Sinopharm) for mass rollout.
  • Norway said on Monday it was not changing its policy on the use of Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine following reports of deaths in highly frail recipients after the inoculation was given.

East Asia and Pacific

  • The Philippines will buy 20 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine, adding to deals for a total of 72 million doses from AstraZeneca, Novavax and Sinovac.

 

Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Brazil clears emergency use of Sinovac, AstraZeneca vaccines and begins nationwide immunization program.

The Amazonian city of Manaus in Brazil has begun administering Covid vaccines as the city’s health system struggles amid an increase in infections and dwindling oxygen supplies.

  • Mexico aims to administer 7.4 million doses of the Sputnik V Russian COVID-19 vaccine to its people by the end of March, even though the government has yet to approve its use.

 

Middle-East and North Africa

  • Palestinians expect to receive a first batch of COVID-19 vaccine by the weekend.

 

South Asia

  • India began world's biggest Covid vaccination program last week. The country of 1.3 billion people hopes to vaccinate 300 million citizens by August. India’s COVID-19 vaccination drive was still facing some delays on Sunday after it hit a bump on the first day due to glitches in CO-WIN app used to coordinate the campaign. India, will start exports of COVID-19 vaccines as early as Jan. 20, government sources said.

Diagnostics

  • Study concludes that saliva tests for COVID-19 have similar diagnostic accuracy to nasopharyngeal swabs for PCR. These findings support larger-scale research on the use of saliva as an alternative to nasopharyngeal swab.

 

Treatment and Oxygen

  • Ivermectin, an antiparasitic drug with antiviral properties, has shown promise during in vitro studies by inhibiting replication of SARS-CoV-2 in very small concentrations.
  • Venezuela has sent a convoy of trucks carrying emergency oxygen supplies for Brazil's northern Amazonas state, where a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic has hit hard.

 

Mobility

  • The EU’s member states plan to agree by the end of the month on the form of a common vaccination certificate.
  • Emirates and Etihad, two of the middle east’s biggest airlines, said they would be among the first companies to test an application that allows pre-travel verification of coronavirus tests and vaccinations.

Sulzhan Bali and Akiko Kitamura
On behalf of COVID-19 Emergency Operations Center (EOC)

 


 

 

 

Thank you and kind regards,

Sebastian

 

 

Sebastian Molineus
Regional Director for the South Caucasus
Europe and Central Asia
T  +995 (32) 291 6238
M +995 (577) 78 7821
M +1 (202) 492-3914
E  smolineus@worldbank.org
W www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca

 @smolineus

www.linkedin.com/in/molineus/